Este artículo repasa la situación sobrevenida por la crisis actual, fundamentalmente la bajada del precio del mercado y la simulación que podría tener en el futuro, con elevada penetración renovable. Asimismo, analiza la participación de las diferentes formas de generación en la formación de los precios y su posible afección a los perfiles de consumo. En él se comenta también, la incidencia que puede tener en el mantenimiento de las plantas, la previsible incidencia en los contratos PPAs, así como algunas propuestas para cuando la situación de crisis se termine y, en la medida de lo posible, corrijamos situaciones pasadas. No sabemos qué pasará el día después, pero una parte del futuro se nos ha venido encima: la bajada del precio de venta de la electricidad. No tengo tan claro que la integración prevista de las renovables suponga una reducción directa de los precios del mercado; el coste variable tiene que ser compensado y, dependiendo de la modalidad contractual de los servicios de mantenimiento, puede ser interesante ofrecer precios altos y/o parar la planta. En este momento el precio del mercado está en el entorno a los 30 €/MWh con bajadas los fines de semana al entorno de los 27 €/MWh y con factores de apuntamiento próximos a 0,93 para la eólica y a 1 para la fotovoltaica; aunque algunos días “normales” se empezaba ya a vislumbrar la curva de pato (demanda neta descontada la generación renovable que provoca rampas a primera y última hora del día, así como bajadas de precio al medio día) que irá a más a medida que nos acerquemos al verano“normal”, con la consiguiente reducción de este coeficiente solar. En el caso de la eólica estaríamos pues en un ingresomedio de 28 €/MWh y, de momento, ligeramente superior para la fotovoltaica. En el debate sobre coste variable y precio ofertado resulta curioso el caso de la hidroeléctrica: fija el precio del mercado mayorista un 48% de las horas, de hecho 54% en horas punta y el 40% en horas valle; a pesar de sus bajos costes variables (o precisamente por eso) y gracias a su capacidad de almacenamiento. Por el contrario, las otras tecnologías renovables/cogeneración que fijan precio lo hacen en un porcentaje del 24% y mayor en horas valle, un 30%, lo que muestra que no todas tienen la versatilidad hidráulica para ofertar precios en periodos caros. This article reviews the situation being experienced due to the current crisis, essentially the fall in the market price, and the simulation of what could happen in future, with a high renewable penetration. It also analyses how the different ways power is generated take part in price formation and the possible impact on consumption profiles. This article also discusses the impact it might have on plant maintenance, the foreseeable impact on PPA contracts, as well as some proposals for when the crisis is over and, insofar as it is possible, how we correct past situations. We do not know what is going to happen tomorrow, but part of the future has already caught up with us: the fall in the retail price of electricity. I am not at all sure that the expected integration of renewables represents a direct reduction in the market prices; the variable cost has to be offset and, depending on the contractual terms of maintenance services, it might be more advantageous to offer high prices and/or stop the plant. Right now, the market price stands at around 30 €/MWh with falls at weekends to about 27 €/MWh and other peak factors close to 0.93 for wind power and 1 for PV. Although some “normal” days are already starting to be seen, the duck curve (net demand discounting renewable generation which causes steep rises at the beginning and end of the day, as well as price falls at midday) will start to be more customised as we approach the “normal” summer, with the consequent reduction in this solar coefficient. In the case of wind power, the average income would thus be 28 €/MWh with, for now, a slightly higher figure for PV. As regards the debate on variable cost versus the price offered, the case of hydropower is curious: the wholesale market price is set at 48% of the hours, specifically, 54% during peak times and 40% during off-peak hours, despite its low variable costs (or precisely for this reason) and thanks to its storage capacity. By contrast, the other renewable/CHP technologies that set prices do so at 24% and more during off-peak hours, at 30%, proving that not all of them have the hydraulic versatility to offer prices during expensive periods. From the point of view of maintenance, several consequences of these low prices can be envisaged. Firstly, those plants with a fixed remuneration scheme, above all PV plants, which are subject to Royal Decree 413/2014, would suffer less from the possible loss of production due to lower plant availability and as such would not be pressurised to undertake the usual maintenance of prior to this crisis. The force majeure provided for by the Decree on the state of emergency implies a specific level of contractual coverage. However it is important that, given the circumstances, the criteria of the operating hours threshold provided for by this Royal Decree is not applied, to avoid jeopardising the remuneration scheme. By contrast, as regards the merchant risk plants (that include the auctions meaning that a bird NADA SERÁ IGUAL QUE ANTES: O QUIZÁS SÍ Alberto Ceña Secretario General, AEMER NOTHING WILL BE THE SAME AS BEFORE. OR PERHAPS IT WILL Alberto Ceña, General Secretary of AEMER, the Spanish Association for the Maintenance of Renewable Energy Foto cortesía de | Photo courtesy of: COMSA/Gdes Opinión | Opinion www.futurenergyweb.es 16 FuturEnergy | Marzo/Abril March/April 2020
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