www.futurenergyweb.es Cogeneración | CHP FuturEnergy | Mayo May 2019 36 los consumos térmicos en el sector residencial y el resto de los consumos térmicos industriales) e incorporando sistemas de acumulación masivos (baterías). A efectos de comprobar el impacto específico de la incorporación de las demandas de calor dentro del sistema eléctrico, se han calculado antes los resultados de la simulación sin electrificación del calor (Figura 3). Las diferencias entre la demanda de electricidad (azul) y la producción instantánea (verde) deben ser compensadas mediante sistemas de acumulación (roja): la generación renovable pico debería alcanzar los 50 GW (no olvidemos que, en el periodo estudiado, esta ha sido del orden de 15 GW) y las necesidades de acumulación llegan a superar los 1.400 GWh. Cuando electrificamos el calor (Figura 4) las magnitudes se duplican: la generación renovable pico necesaria alcanza los 108 GW (es decir, deberemos multiplicar por 7 la capacidad actual de generación renovable) y la capacidad de acumulación requerida es ya de alrededor de 3.000 GWh. La entrega pico de potencia por parte de estos sistemas de acumulación supera los 59 GW. Y todo eso sin incorporar en el modelo la generación destinada a la movilidad. La magnitud de estas cifras se entiende mejor si recordamos que, hoy, en este mismo periodo estudiado, la demanda eléctrica total máxima no ha llegado ni a los 35 GW. Es decir, si electrificamos comresidential sector and the other quarter of industrial thermal consumption) and incorporating mass storage systems (batteries). For the purposes of verifying the specific impact of incorporating the demands for heat within the electricity system, the results of the simulation were first calculated without the electrification of heat (Figure 3). The differences between the demand for electricity (blue) and the instantaneous production (green) have to be offset by storage systems (red): peak renewable generation must achieve 50 GW (not forgetting that, over the period studied, this was in the range of 15 GW) and storage needs to amount to 1,400 GWh. When heat is electrified (Figure 4), the figures double: peak renewable generation achieves 108 GW (in other words, the actual renewable generation capacity has to be multiplied by 7) and the required storage is already in the region of 3,000 GWh. The peak output delivery by these storage systems exceeds 59 GW. And all this is without including in the model the power generation destined for mobility. The size of these figures is better understood if we remember that, today, for this same period under study, the total maximum electricity demand did not even reach 35 GW. In other words, if the energy system is completely electrified, we will need to install almost double the capacity than the peak experienced today in storage alone. Economic impact The investments necessary to implement this energy transformation must take place within the four fields mentioned above: renewable generation, storage, deployment of transmission & distribution grids and consumption transformation, at an estimated €300 billion (similar to the amount of Spain’s General State Budget). Its impact will inevitably fall on the consumer who will see their energy cost double (electricity) or triple (heat).4 It is not unreasonable to state that industry is in no way able to bear these costs. Alternatives It is essential that other options are considered and thoroughly studied, which similarly ensure that the objectives of the Paris Agreement are met. Such options range from the production of hydrogen and synthetic fuels based on renewable energy, the use of regasification plants as an energy storage system and power generation from synthetic fuels as a back-up. Figura 3. Demanda eléctrica actual. Sin entrega de calor. (Fuente: elaboración propia) | Figure 3. Current electricity demand.Without delivery of heat. (Source: compiled by the authors) Figura 4. Demanda eléctrica actual y entrega de todo el calor. (Fuente: elaboración propia) Figure 4. Current electricity demand and delivery of all heat. (Source: compiled by the authors)
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