FuturEnergy | Diciembre 2017-Enero 2018 December 2017-January 2018 www.futurenergyweb.es 61 Este estudio se ha llevado a cabo como parte del proyecto EAFO para analizar las vías y los impactos de una transición de la flota de automóviles de la UE a vehículos cero emisiones. Llevado a cabo por los socios de EAFO, AVERE, TNO y VUB, el estudio está diseñado para ayudar a los legisladores a comprender los impactos de una transición rápida a una flota cero emisiones. Considera los efectos de esta transición en los combustibles fósiles importados, las emisiones de GEI, la calidad del aire y la competitividad general de la industria de la UE. Una extensa revisión bibliográfica no identificó ningún escenario o pronóstico que brindase nuevos conocimientos sobre los impactos de una transición completa a una flota cero emisiones en la UE. Para abordar esta necesidad, se modelaron una serie de escenarios para determinar los impactos financieros, energéticos y de emisiones de CO2 de una transición hacia una flota de vehículos de pasajeros cero emisiones para el año 2050. Los tres escenarios de pronóstico se basan en un análisis de la literatura existente para las ventas de vehículos cero emisiones para describir la adopción baja, media y alta de vehículos cero emisiones. También se presentan tres escenarios retrospectivos para trazar rutas hacia el objetivo de una flota de turismos 100% cero emisiones para 2050. Estas retrospectivas consideran distintos niveles de adopción de vehículos eléctricos puros e híbridos enchufables. This study has been carried out as part of the EAFO project to look at the pathways and the impacts of a transition of the EU car fleet to ZEVs (Zero Emission Vehicles). Undertaken by the EAFO partners AVERE, TNO and VUB, the study is designed to help policymakers understand the impacts of a rapid transition to a ZEV fleet. It considers the effects of this transition on imported fossil fuels, GHG emissions, air quality and the overall competitiveness of EU industry. An extensive literature review failed to identify any scenarios or forecasts that provide new insights on the impacts of a complete transition to a ZEV fleet in the EU. To address this need, a range of scenarios were modelled to determine the financial, energy and CO2 emission impacts of a transition to a ZEV passenger car fleet by 2050. Three forecast scenarios draw on an analysis of existing literature for ZEV sales to outline low, medium and high uptakes of ZEVs. Three backcast scenarios are also presented to chart pathways to the target of a 100% ZEV passenger car fleet by 2050. These backcasts consider different levels of uptake of battery electric vehicles (BEVs) and plug-in hybrid vehicle (PHEVs). Main findings Achieving a 100% ZEV fleet by 2050 will require all new car sales to be ZEV by 2035 (assuming a similar vehicle lifetime as today). This is a substantially faster introduction of ZEVs and PHEVs than current and future policies will achieve. The best option for a fast reduction in emissions is to focus on BEVs rather than PHEVs so that the EU transitions more rapidly to 100% ZEV sales. A scenario where PHEVs are the initial focus will push ZEV growth further into the future and will ultimately require a larger effort at a later date. The impact of (an early fleet of) PHEVs on reducing ZEV costs, increasing consumer acceptance and promoting investments in charging/ fuelling infrastructure is difficult to forecast but could play an important role in ZEV adoption. A transition to a 100% ZEV car fleet by 2050 will result in an additional reduction of cumulative CO2 emissions in 2020 and 2050 of 2.2 to 3.9 Gt compared to existing EU targets. As the European power industry has committed to near 100% carbon neutral electricity production in Europe by 2050, the net “Well toWheel” GHG emissions reduction from transport can be expected to be even higher. This energy supply analysis is outside the scope of this study. Around 1,740 million barrels of oil per year could be saved by 2050 with the transition to a zero emission passenger car fleet, ESTUDIO EAFO. LA TRANSICIÓN HACIA UNA FLOTA DE AUTOMÓVILES CERO EMISIONES EN LA UE PARA 2050 Descarbonizar el transporte es fundamental para alcanzar los compromisos políticos de Europa en materia de cambio climático. Se espera que el sector del transporte genere una reducción del 60% en las emisiones de gases de efecto invernadero (GEI) en la UE para 2050. Alcanzar estos compromisos exijirá una descarbonización completa de la flota de turismos. El compromiso más ambicioso de la COP21, de limitar el aumento de temperatura a 1,5°C exigirá una descarbonización completa del transporte para 2050. EAFO STUDY. THE TRANSITION TO A ZERO EMISSION CAR FLEET IN THE EU BY 2050 Decarbonising transport is central to achieving Europe’s policy commitments on climate change. The transport sector is expected to deliver a 60% reduction in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in the EU by 2050. Achieving these commitments is expected to require a complete decarbonisation of the passenger car fleet. The more ambitious COP21 commitment to limit temperature rises to 1.5°Cwill demand a complete decarbonisation of transport by 2050. Movilidad Eléctrica | E-Mobility
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