Data of the Economic Report 2010 of Seopan, Observatory of the Construction

From a historical perspective, after a decade of strong expansion of the market of edificación residential that elevated the offer of houses until levels very upper to the average of the European countries, observes that the shrinking of the demand of house in Spain has his origin to beginnings of 2006, motivated by the fall of the profitability expected of the business. The deep adjust observed, although announced and expected, has showed with greater intensity of the initially planned, no only by the restriction crediticia associated to the international financial crisis, but by the repercussion that in terms of destruction of employment is producing in the Spanish economy. The years 2008 and 2009 have consolidated and intensified the phase of adjust of the segment of the edificación, and more in concrete the residential segment in spite of showing a moderation as it advanced the 2010.

The following document is an extract of the Economic Report 2010 of Seopan, in that it analyses the evolution of the edificación in Spain in the last years.

The market of the house, measured through the compraventas registered and of the transactions real estates, grew of moderate form in 2010. Nevertheless, it aims that the formal traffic of houses from the promoters inmobiliarios until the banks, like dación of the payment, and the back transmission of these houses to final buyers, could give place to that the statistics of transmissions and sales sobrevalorasen, in some measure, the real sales of houses in 2010.

Incidentally, the rise of the VAT (of the 7 to 8%) from July of 2010 and the announcement of the elimination of the desgravación in the tax of the income to the buyers of usual house with upper income to 24.100 euros from 1 January 2011, promoted the sales in 2010, especially in house used. By all this, can ensure that the weight of the adjust in the last year insisted in the new house, without observing a clear recovery in the beginning of 2011. On the other hand, the behaviour of the edificación no residential, although it is being less desfavorable, keeps still a tone clearly regresivo.

The residential segment, historically constitutes like the main market of edificación.

On his recent evolution, all the indicators show a turning point in the residential offer in the year 2007, with an intense shrinking in 2008 and 2009, attenuating along the 2010. According to the data of the General Secretary of House, in 2006 initiated 760 one thousand houses, maximum of this series, descending in the following year to 616 one thousand breaking the ascending tendency registered from 2001. In 2008 recorta until the 346 one thousand houses, in 2009 to 159 one thousand and finalises the 2010 in the 124 one thousand, 22% inferior to the year precedent.

Attending to the data of visas of house that publish the Official Schools of Aparejadores and Technical Architects (Coaat), the fall of the last year was something more contained, of 13%, situating the houses visadas in 128 one thousand, in front of the record figure of 912 one thousand of the exercise 2006 and to the 610 one thousand houses visadas in average along the seven previous years.

The evolution of the visas in the exercises 2006 and 2007 has to be analysed with some cautela, taking into account the ‘effect anticipate' caused by the entrance in force of the Technical Code of Edificación (CTE). Although his effective fulfillment took place in March of 2006, in the practice produced of gradual way, with two transitory periods that finalised in September of 2006 and in March of 2007. In front of the encarecimiento of the cost of the construction, associated to some greater standards of quality, this ‘effect anticipate' estimated in something more than 100 one thousand houses, of which a third part visaron in March, explaining the beaks observed.

The visa reflects the formality whereby the School of Architects gives the seen well to the planes of the edificación, constituting, therefore, an indicator advanced of the start of the activity in edificación. Nevertheless, no all the projects visas finalise in the execution of the house, although the granting of a municipal licence of work, although with delay, confirms the tendency in a more immediate future.

The statistics of houses initiated, collected in the actuality by the Ministry responsible for public works (SG of House) contribute an estimate of the licences of work conceded by the Municipal Administration, moment in which the work can be sure enough initiated. These statistics present a desfase temporary in front of the one of the visas and is coherent with the terms of tramitación of the licence, estimated in a period that comprises between three and six months. Independently of this desfase, the number of projects visas is systematically upper to the of the municipal licences and, in lower measure, to the estimate of houses initiated.

Considering the average of the years 2000 to 2005, observes that the houses visadas surpassed to the initiated in roughly 50 one thousand units, what subsequently duplicates in the years 2006 and 2007. This decoupling explains , in the first place, by the effect commented of the visas to avoid receive to the exigencias imposed by the CTE, but also, to the fact that a part of the projects visas do not result profitable or do not have of sufficient finance in the current coyuntura economic. Nevertheless, as it confirms in the following chart, the regresiva evolution observed from mediated of 2007 corrects progressively the discrepancy of the two years indicated, showing an almost total coincidence.

The comparison of the houses initiated and finished contributes also indications of the moment cíclico that it crosses the market. Whereas in the exercises 2004 to 2006 the houses initiated surpassed to the finished, in an average of 117 one thousand annual houses, in the following years invests this tendency.

This unfit has to to the desfase temporary between the start and the terminación of the execution of a house, that in hard Spain between 18 and 24 months. Like this, in periods of expansion of activity, like the become in previous exercises, the houses initiated surpass to the finished. However, in the coyuntura current of strong recession, the cycle invests as it already occurred in the period 1990-1994. In the last exercise, on the one hand, attenuates the shrinking of the houses initiated, until situating in the 124 one thousand, and, by another, stresses the fall of the houses finished until registering a decreasing of 35%, what supposes 219 one thousand houses.

An additional vision that combines the offer and the demand is the showed by the statistics of transaction of houses that elaborates in the actuality the Ministry responsible for public works (SG of house), from the proportionate figures by the notaries and registradores. The continued increase of the financial effort required to purchase a house, because of the increase of his price and of the types of interest, propició that his demand began to resentirse to beginnings of 2006. The transactions of house in this period annotate successive falls, of 12% in 2007, 33% in 2008 and 18% in 2009.

Nevertheless, as already it has explained , in the 2010 registers a light advance valued in 6% in the number of houses transmitted. The house used, after showing an important shrinking in 2007, amplifies his fall in 2008 to show in the following year a negative register clearly more contained, near to 4%, for finally recover in 2010 with an advance of 31%. The deterioration in the previous years caused an increase of the available half times and therefore of the stock. The transactions of new house, that had kept a positive growth in 2007, had important cuts in the three following years of the 19, 28 and 17% respectively.

Seemed logical that in 2010 the dynamics of the secondhand market and the one of new work had converged, but has not been like this, probably by the incidence that have been able to have in the transactions of the house used the elimination of the desgravación fiscal to the purchase of the usual house.

Inside the activity of edificación residential it is necessary to distinguish between the edificación of new work —reaches to 90% of the total— and the activity of rehabilitation. The evolution of both components can approximate through the corresponding series of visas of the School of Aparejadores and Technical Architects.

Like consequence of the anticipate of derivative visas of the new Technical Code of Edificación, the houses visadas of new work reached his maximum in the third quarter of 2006, after which the demand initiates a downward path interrupted so only in the first quarter of 2007 by the effect of the CTE. Subsequently, his fall touches floor in the last part of 2010. The adjust observed in the offer explains , partly substantial, by the shrinking of the demand like consequence of the encarecimiento and difficulty of access to the finance, and by the greater problems of the promoters to access to the credit.

Unlike the new work, the visas of rehabilitation began to reduce in 2006 and continued to the same rhythm to the following year. In front of a near average to the 43 one thousand in the four previous years, in 2008 tackled 29 one thousand rehabilitations of houses, 32 one thousand in 2009 and 33 one thousand in 2010.

The State Plan of House and Rehabilitation 2009-2012 has by aim facilitate the access to the house of the citizens, no only with fewer resources, but also, of half incomes, trying take advantage of the stock of free houses to expand the public park. The plan foresees 996 one thousand performances, 38% more than the previous plan, improving especially the rent, the urbanisation of floor for VPO and the improvement of the park of current houses. In addition to including the rehabilitation in his denomination like sample of the importance that purchases in the same, also incorporate the helps Renove for the improvement of the energetic efficiency and the accessibility. Like additional injection, for the set up immediate of the first performances of the plan, the Bottom for the Stimulus of the Economy and the Employment of the Government allocates 110 millions for rehabilitation of houses.

Incidentally, this initiative reinforces with the approval of the measures for the impulse of the economic recovery and the employment, by which enters in the income tax a new deduction by works of improvement in the usual house to split 2010. It fits resaltar that from April of this same year and until finals of the 2012 will apply the type reduced of VAT of 7% (8% from 1 July 2010) to the executions of work of renewal and repair in buildings. To this joins the elevation of the 10 to 20% of the fiscal discount for taxpayers that rehabilitate his house, even in second and third residences. Besides, it expands the limit of the deduction until the 6.750 euros, applicable to taxpayers with inferior incomes to 53 one thousand euros (that it will reduce progressively until reaching a base imponible of the beneficiario of 71 one thousand euros).

On the other hand, in the current context of internal weakness, keeps , although attenuated, the reorientación of strategy of the big and average companies promoters, so much in new work as in rehabilitation, to external markets, fundamentally to the countries of east Europe and, in some cases, north of Africa.

The statistics of visas collects also information on the typology of the houses initiated in Spain. To this respecto, fits to underline the predominance of the house en bloc that has gone increasing his weight in the total, from 65% in 1998 until reaching 81% in 2007, for later reduce in following years until situating in 54%. In both typologies, the visas fell in the three last years. In the case of the houses unifamiliares, intensify the descent initiated in 2006 until 49%, moderating substantially in 2010.

The predominate of the edificación en bloc comports that the impact of the desaceleración, that began in 2007 in the initiation of houses, move with some retardo to the activity constructor and to the employment. This fact differs of what occurs in other countries, like United States or Ireland, where the predominance of the house unifamiliar explains how the paralización in the initiation of houses moves of form more immediate to the economy.

In 2010 the half surface built of the houses en bloc went of 100 square metres. It seems evident that the process of reduction of the half size of the homes and of the high level of prices of the floor, observed along the last decade, will keep the pressure in the next years, although it can see attenuated by the adjust current of the market. By this reason, the promoters have seen forced to offer products of lower surface, to do the most accessible house and adjusted to the requests of the market.

However, the house unifamiliar followed increasing his half size, situating in 188 square metres. His demand associates to his use as much as second residence in homes with high incomes, like main house for homes of half incomes.

Attending to the distribution by regions of houses initiated in 2010, Andalucia (16%), Catalonia (15%), Madrid (10%), the two Castillas (8%) and the Valencian Community (7%) keep his positions of leadership. This fact explains no only by the demand of his respective populations, but also by the wide coastal extension in the majority of these communities and his tourist specialisation. By this reason, the distribution keeps a similar distribution to the observed in expansionary phases of the residential cycle, although of lower relative weight. They follow them Basque Country and Galicia (with 6%) and Aragon and Extremadura (4%).

Regarding the rhythm of the activity in 2010, the continuity of the adjust in the initiation of houses has been a still generalised tendency in the majority of the Spanish regions, save in Aragon, Cantabria, Catalonia and The Rioja, with upper growths to 10%. In the contrary part of the table fits to aim the negative registers of the communities of Castile-La Mancha, Andalucia, Extremadura, Galicia, Murcia, Valencian Community and Asturias, with upper descents to 16%. With taxes likewise negative, although more contained, find the regions of Navarra, Basque Country, Castile and Leon and Balearic, with shrinkings between the 5 and 12%.

The park of houses, according to the data of the Survey of Active Population, rose to 26,9 million houses in 2010 and, since they estimate 17,25 million homes in 2010, concludes that there are 1,56 houses by home. It estimates that the park has kept relatively stable, agglutinating something more than the 60 percent of the stock four regions —Catalonia, Andalucia, Madrid and Valencia—.

According to the estimate to regional level, the houses initiated in 2010 represented only 0,5% of the total park, in front of the 2,7 that reached in the exercise 2007. In the last year, the regions that registered a greater relative increase of the stock were Asturias and Cantabria (in both cases with 1%), being the regions with lower dynamism the Valencian Community and Canaries.

Finally, analysing the dynamism of the edificación residential by geographic areas, the houses initiated in the big cities —Madrid, Barcelona, Valencia, Seville, Saragossa and Málaga—, add around 13% of the total, in the tourist zones suppose 19%, and in the remaining zones 81%. In relation to the general fall of the visas, appreciates that it has been more pronounced in the tourist provinces, around 27%, in front of the substantial advance observed in the big cities of 39% that, in spite of supposing a near number to the 17 one thousand houses, remains very move# away of the 47 one thousand visas of average registered in the ten previous years.